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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2013 Jul 21.
Published in final edited form as: Lancet. 2012 Jul 21;380(9838):219–229. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(12)61031-9

Table 2.

Estimated population attributable fractions (PAF), calculated using adjusted relative risks,* for CHD, type 2 diabetes, breast cancer, colon cancer, and all-cause mortality associated with physical inactivity, by WHO region

WHO region and country PAF (95% uncertainty interval)
CHD Type 2 diabetes Breast cancer Colon cancer All-cause mortality
Africa
 Algeria 6.7 (2.4–11.2) 8.3 (4.2–12.9) 12.8 (5.9–20.0) 12.0 (6.8–17.2) 10.8 (8.6–13.1)
 Benin 1.5 (0.5–2.5) 1.9 (0.9–2.9) 2.9 (1.3–4.6) 2.7 (1.5–3.9) 2.4 (1.9–3.0)
 Botswana 5.8 (2.1–9.7) 7.2 (3.6–11.3) 11.5 (5.4–18.0) 10.4 (5.9–15.1) 9.4 (7.5–11.4)
 Burkina Faso 2.6 (−0.2–6.1) 3.2 (−0.3–7.2) 4.3 (−1.0–9.5) 4.6 (−0.8–9.9) 4.1 (−0.1–8.6)
 Cameroon 6.7 (1.0–13.9) 8.3 (1.8–16.2) 12.6 (1.8–23.8) 12.0 (2.3–22.1) 10.9 (3.4–18.6)
 Cape Verde 3.4 (1.3–5.7) 4.2 (2.1–6.6) 7.7 (3.5–11.8) 6.1 (3.4–8.9) 5.5 (4.3–6.8)
 Chad 4.1 (0.0–9.3) 5.0 (−0.2–11.0) 6.8 (−0.8–14.4) 7.3 (−0.3–15.1) 6.5 (0.4–12.9)
 Comoros 1.4 (−0.3–3.6) 1.7 (−0.4–4.2) 2.8 (−0.9–6.4) 2.5 (−0.8–5.7) 2.2 (−0.5–5.0)
 Congo 8.0 (1.4–16.4) 10.0 (2.2–19.1) 13.8 (2.8–24.9) 14.4 (3.0–26.2) 13.0 (4.4–22.0)
 Cote d’Ivoire 5.4 (0.6–11.9) 6.7 (0.8–13.9) 9.6 (0.7–19.0) 9.7 (0.7–18.5) 8.8 (2.0–16.1)
 Democratic Republic of the Congo 7.5 (2.8–12.4) 9.3 (4.7–14.5) 13.6 (6.5–21.1) 13.4 (7.3–19.4) 12.1 (9.6–14.6)
 Eritrea 6.7 (2.4–11.2) 8.3 (4.2–12.8) 14.3 (6.7–22.4) 12.0 (6.7–17.1) 10.8 (8.6–13.0)
 Ethiopia 3.2 (−0.1–7.6) 4.0 (−0.1–8.9) 5.8 (−0.9–12.7) 5.7 (−0.6–12.1) 5.2 (0.2–10.5)
 Gabon 6.1 (0.5–13.3) 7.5 (0.6–15.5) 12.1 (0.7–23.6) 10.8 (0.6–21.5) 9.8 (1.8–18.2)
 Gambia 4.1 (1.5–6.7) 5.0 (2.5–7.8) 7.5 (3.5–11.7) 7.3 (4.1–10.5) 6.5 (5.2–7.9)
 Ghana 2.9 (1.1–4.8) 3.6 (1.8–5.7) 5.4 (2.5–8.4) 5.2 (2.9–7.5) 4.7 (3.7–5.7)
 Guinea 2.0 (−0.2–5.0) 2.5 (−0.2–5.6) 4.7 (−0.7–10.2) 3.6 (−0.6–7.7) 3.2 (−0.1–6.7)
 Kenya 2.7 (−0.4–6.8) 3.4 (−0.6–7.9) 4.7 (−1.1–10.6) 4.9 (−1.0–10.9) 4.4 (−0.3–9.3)
 Madagascar 3.9 (1.4–6.4) 4.8 (2.4–7.5) 7.4 (3.5–11.5) 6.9 (3.9–10.0) 6.2 (4.9–7.5)
 Malawi 1.7 (0.6–2.8) 2.1 (1.0–3.3) 3.4 (1.6–5.3) 3.0 (1.7–4.4) 2.7 (2.1–3.3)
 Mali 3.5 (−0.1–8.0) 4.3 (−0.2–9.5) 6.2 (−0.7–13.4) 6.2 (−0.7–13.1) 5.6 (0.2–11.1)
 Mauritania 7.3 (1.5–14.3) 9.0 (2.2–16.9) 12.4 (3.3–21.8) 13.0 (3.0–23.0) 11.7 (4.5–19.2)
 Mauritius 6.4 (0.7–13.5) 7.9 (1.3–15.9) 10.2 (0.8–20.0) 11.4 (1.2–21.6) 10.3 (2.6–18.2)
 Mozambique 1.2 (0.4–2.0) 1.5 (0.7–2.3) 1.9 (0.9–3.0) 2.1 (1.1–3.1) 1.9 (1.5–2.4)
 Namibia 9.7 (2.3–18.9) 12.0 (3.5–22.2) 17.0 (4.6–29.5) 17.3 (5.0–29.9) 15.6 (7.0–24.8)
 Niger 4.9 (1.8–8.0) 6.0 (3.0–9.3) 8.9 (4.2–14.1) 8.7 (4.8–12.6) 7.8 (6.2–9.5)
 Sao Tome and Principe 3.1 (1.1–5.2) 3.9 (2.0–6.0) 6.9 (3.1–10.6) 5.6 (3.1–8.2) 5.1 (4.0–6.2)
 Senegal 3.8 (0.0–8.8) 4.7 (0.1–10.1) 6.7 (−0.7–14.2) 6.8 (−0.3–13.7) 6.2 (0.5–12.0)
 Seychelles 3.7 (1.3–6.1) 4.6 (2.3–7.2) 5.8 (2.6–9.2) 6.6 (3.7–9.6) 6.0 (4.7–7.3)
 Sierra Leone 3.3 (1.1–5.4) 4.1 (2.0–6.3) 6.2 (2.9–9.5) 5.9 (3.3–8.5) 5.3 (4.2–6.5)
 South Africa 8.7 (3.1–14.5) 10.7 (5.4–16.8) 14.7 (6.7–23.1) 15.5 (8.8–22.4) 14.0 (11.1–16.9)
 Swaziland 11.4 (3.2–21.5) 14.2 (4.7–25.1) 18.8 (5.9–32.4) 20.4 (7.3–33.7) 18.4 (9.4–27.7)
 Zambia 2.9 (−0.3–7.0) 3.5 (−0.5–8.2) 5.0 (−1.2–11.3) 5.1 (−1.0–11.4) 4.6 (−0.2–9.6)
 Zimbabwe 3.9 (0.0–9.0) 4.9 (−0.1–10.7) 6.7 (−0.8–14.3) 7.0 (−0.4–14.6) 6.4 (0.6–12.4)
Median for region 3.9 4.8 7.1 7.0 6.3
Americas
 Central and South America
 Argentina 11.3 (3.1–21.0) 14.0 (4.8–24.7) 18.5 (5.9–31.7) 20.2 (6.8–33.5) 18.2 (9.5–27.7)
 Barbados 7.8 (2.8–13.0) 9.6 (4.8–15.0) 14.5 (6.8–22.7) 13.9 (7.6–20.1) 12.5 (9.9–15.1)
 Brazil 8.2 (1.5–16.4) 10.1 (2.4–18.9) 13.4 (2.3–24.7) 14.6 (2.9–26.1) 13.2 (4.8–21.7)
 Colombia 7.3 (0.9–15.6) 9.0 (1.3–18.2) 12.5 (1.2–23.9) 13.0 (1.3–24.8) 11.7 (2.8–21.0)
 Dominica 4.0 (1.7–16.6) 5.0 (2.7–19.9) 9.0 (4.2–26.1) 7.2 (4.2–27.5) 6.5 (5.3–23.0)
 Dominican Republic 9.9 (1.7–16.6) 12.3 (2.7–19.9) 16.4 (4.2–26.1) 17.8 (4.2–27.5) 16.0 (5.3–23.0)
 Ecuador 7.1 (1.0–14.6) 8.7 (1.5–17.2) 12.6 (1.5–23.7) 12.6 (2.1–23.5) 11.4 (3.5–19.7)
 Guatemala 2.7 (−0.3–6.5) 3.3 (−0.5–7.8) 4.4 (−1.2–10.1) 4.8 (−1.1–10.6) 4.3 (−0.3–9.2)
 Jamaica 7.9 (1.4–16.1) 9.8 (2.2–18.5) 13.4 (2.6–24.8) 14.1 (2.5–25.5) 12.8 (4.6–21.6)
 Mexico 6.2 (0.8–13.2) 7.7 (1.0–15.8) 10.0 (0.8–19.8) 11.2 (1.1–21.3) 10.1 (2.5–18.2)
 Paraguay 6.8 (1.0–14.2) 8.5 (1.4–16.8) 10.9 (1.0–21.2) 12.2 (1.6–22.9) 11.0 (3.0–19.1)
 Saint Kitts and Nevis 6.3 (2.3–10.5) 7.9 (3.9–12.2) 12.5 (5.9–19.5) 11.3 (6.4–16.5) 10.2 (8.1–12.4)
 Uruguay 5.6 (2.1–9.4) 7.0 (3.5–10.9) 10.5 (4.8–16.4) 10.1 (5.6–14.6) 9.1 (7.2–11.1)
Median for region 7.1 8.7 12.5 12.6 11.4
North America
 Canada 5.6 (0.5–12.2) 7.0 (0.8–14.4) 9.2 (0.2–18.6) 10.0 (0.7–19.5) 9.1 (1.8–16.6)
 United States of America 6.7 (2.5–11.1) 8.3 (4.2–12.9) 12.4 (5.8–19.2) 12.0 (6.7–17.4) 10.8 (8.6–13.1)
Median for region 6.2 7.6 10.8 11.0 9.9
Eastern Mediterranean
 Iran (Islamic Republic of) 6.1 (2.2–10.2) 7.6 (3.8–11.8) 12.2 (5.8–18.9) 10.9 (6.2–15.8) 9.9 (7.9–11.9)
 Iraq 9.7 (3.5–15.8) 12.0 (6.0–18.7) 14.1 (6.6–21.9) 17.3 (9.7–25.1) 15.6 (12.5–18.8)
 Kuwait 10.7 (3.9–17.7) 13.2 (6.6–20.7) 18.8 (8.8–29.2) 19.1 (10.6–27.7) 17.2 (13.7–20.8)
 Lebanon 7.8 (2.9–12.9) 9.6 (4.7–14.9) 10.9 (5.1–16.9) 13.8 (7.6–20.0) 12.5 (9.9–15.1)
 Libyan Arab Jamahiriya 7.6 (2.8–12.5) 9.4 (4.7–14.7) 14.2 (6.6–21.9) 13.6 (7.4–19.5) 12.2 (9.7–14.8)
 Pakistan 6.7 (1.0–14.0) 8.3 (1.4–16.3) 12.5 (1.9–23.6) 12.0 (1.6–22.0) 10.8 (3.2–18.8)
 Saudi Arabia 11.4 (4.2–18.8) 14.1 (7.1–21.9) 19.9 (9.2–30.6) 20.4 (11.3–29.3) 18.4 (14.7–22.1)
 Tunisia 5.9 (0.7–12.6) 7.4 (1.0–15.0) 10.5 (1.0–20.2) 10.6 (1.0–20.3) 9.6 (2.4–17.1)
 United Arab Emirates 10.3 (2.6–19.9) 12.8 (3.8–23.6) 18.0 (5.9–30.9) 18.5 (5.2–31.7) 16.7 (7.3–26.2)
Median for region 7.8 9.6 14.1 13.8 12.5
Europe
 Austria 5.8 (0.6–12.1) 7.1 (1.0–14.5) 10.2 (0.8–20.1) 10.3 (1.1–19.4) 9.3 (2.3–16.5)
 Belgium 7.1 (1.2–14.7) 8.8 (1.9–17.0) 11.7 (2.0–21.5) 12.6 (2.1–23.1) 11.4 (3.7–19.5)
 Bosnia and Herzegovina 5.6 (0.4–12.1) 6.9 (0.8–14.1) 9.6 (0.4–19.2) 9.9 (0.7–19.4) 9.0 (1.8–16.5)
 Bulgaria 4.4 (0.1–9.9) 5.5 (0.1–11.7) 7.5 (−0.4–15.6) 7.9 (−0.1–16.1) 7.2 (0.9–13.6)
 Croatia 3.9 (0.0–8.9) 4.8 (−0.1–10.6) 5.5 (−0.6–11.6) 7.0 (−0.5–14.3) 6.3 (0.5–12.4)
 Cyprus 9.2 (2.0–17.9) 11.4 (3.0–21.0) 16.3 (4.2–28.8) 16.4 (4.3–28.8) 14.8 (6.2–24.1)
 Czech Republic 4.1 (0.3–9.3) 5.1 (0.2–10.9) 5.8 (−0.4–12.3) 7.4 (0.0–14.8) 6.7 (0.9–12.6)
 Denmark 5.8 (0.6–12.4) 7.2 (0.8–14.7) 9.2 (0.2–18.4) 10.4 (1.0–19.9) 9.4 (2.2–17.1)
 Estonia 2.9 (−0.2–6.9) 3.5 (−0.4–8.1) 4.9 (−0.9–10.9) 5.1 (−0.9–11.2) 4.6 (−0.2–9.4)
 Finland 6.3 (0.8–13.2) 7.8 (1.3–15.6) 9.1 (0.2–18.4) 11.2 (1.1–21.2) 10.1 (2.6–17.8)
 France 5.4 (1.9–8.9) 6.7 (3.3–10.3) 9.7 (4.6–15.1) 9.6 (5.4–13.8) 8.7 (6.9–10.5)
 Georgia 3.7 (1.3–6.2) 4.6 (2.3–7.1) 6.1 (2.8–9.5) 6.6 (3.6–9.6) 6.0 (4.7–7.2)
 Germany 4.6 (0.1–10.4) 5.7 (0.2–12.4) 7.4 (−0.3–15.5) 8.3 (−0.3–16.7) 7.5 (0.9–14.5)
 Greece 2.6 (−0.2–6.2) 3.2 (−0.4–7.4) 3.8 (−1.1–8.7) 4.6 (−0.9–10.1) 4.2 (−0.2–8.7)
 Hungary 4.3 (0.1–9.5) 5.3 (0.0–11.4) 6.7 (−0.2–13.7) 7.7 (−0.2–15.6) 6.9 (0.7–13.2)
 Ireland 8.8 (2.0–17.4) 10.9 (2.9–20.2) 15.2 (3.5–27.3) 15.7 (4.1–27.6) 14.2 (6.0–22.9)
 Italy 9.1 (1.9–18.0) 11.2 (3.0–20.9) 15.6 (4.2–28.0) 16.2 (3.9–28.1) 14.6 (5.8–23.7)
 Kazakhstan 5.2 (0.4–11.5) 6.5 (0.6–13.4) 8.1 (−0.2–16.3) 9.3 (0.5–18.4) 8.4 (1.5–15.6)
 Latvia 5.3 (0.3–11.5) 6.6 (0.5–13.6) 9.4 (0.1–18.7) 9.5 (0.2–18.6) 8.5 (1.4–15.8)
 Lithuania 3.7 (1.3–6.3) 4.6 (2.3–7.2) 6.5 (2.9–10.1) 6.7 (3.7–9.8) 6.0 (4.7–7.5)
 Luxembourg 7.9 (1.3–16.0) 9.8 (1.9–19.1) 11.9 (1.2–23.0) 14.1 (2.6–25.8) 12.7 (4.2–21.8)
 Malta 11.9 (3.3–22.3) 14.7 (5.3–26.0) 19.1 (6.0–32.4) 21.3 (7.5–35.3) 19.2 (9.8–28.9)
 Netherlands 3.0 (−0.1–7.1) 3.7 (−0.3–8.3) 4.0 (−1.1–9.2) 5.4 (−0.6–11.4) 4.9 (0.0–9.8)
 Norway 7.3 (1.2–15.3) 9.1 (1.7–17.9) 11.7 (1.5–22.2) 13.1 (2.2–24.1) 11.8 (3.5–20.2)
 Poland 4.6 (0.2–10.4) 5.7 (0.3–12.0) 8.2 (−0.2–17.0) 8.2 (−0.1–16.4) 7.4 (1.0–13.9)
 Portugal 8.4 (1.7–17.3) 10.5 (2.6–20.2) 14.2 (3.1–25.9) 15.1 (3.6–27.0) 13.6 (5.2–22.6)
 Romania 6.4 (0.7–13.6) 7.9 (1.2–15.8) 12.0 (1.2–23.2) 11.4 (1.3–21.9) 10.3 (2.6–18.4)
 Russian Federation 3.4 (−0.1–8.1) 4.3 (−0.2–9.5) 4.9 (−0.9–10.7) 6.2 (−0.6–13.1) 5.6 (0.2–11.0)
 Serbia 11.3 (3.1–20.9) 14.0 (4.7–24.6) 19.1 (6.9–32.3) 20.2 (7.0–33.5) 18.2 (9.4–27.6)
 Slovakia 3.7 (0.1–8.5) 4.6 (0.0–9.9) 5.5 (−0.9–12.1) 6.6 (−0.3–13.7) 5.9 (0.5–11.5)
 Slovenia 5.0 (0.3–11.1) 6.2 (0.4–12.9) 8.8 (0.2–17.5) 8.9 (0.0–17.6) 8.0 (1.2–15.2)
 Spain 8.3 (1.7–16.7) 10.3 (2.5–19.5) 13.8 (2.6–25.5) 14.9 (3.1–26.6) 13.4 (4.9–22.4)
 Sweden 7.3 (1.2–15.1) 9.1 (1.9–17.4) 11.5 (1.6–21.7) 13.1 (2.1–24.1) 11.8 (3.8–20.2)
 Turkey 9.3 (2.1–18.3) 11.5 (3.2–21.0) 16.3 (4.0–28.9) 16.6 (4.2–29.0) 15.0 (6.2–23.9)
 Ukraine 3.1 (−0.2–7.3) 3.8 (−0.4–8.5) 4.3 (−0.8–9.3) 5.4 (−0.8–11.6) 4.9 (0.0–10.1)
 United Kingdom 10.5 (4.0–17.3) 13.0 (6.4–20.2) 17.9 (8.5–27.8) 18.7 (10.5–27.1) 16.9 (13.6–20.3)
Median for region 5.5 6.8 9.3 9.8 8.8
South-East Asia
 Bangladesh 0.8 (0.3–1.3) 1.0 (0.5–1.5) 1.7 (0.8–2.7) 1.4 (0.8–2.0) 1.3 (1.0–1.5)
 Bhutan 8.7 (1.8–17.3) 10.7 (2.6–20.3) 16.6 (4.2–29.0) 15.5 (3.8–27.6) 14.0 (5.3–22.8)
 India 2.6 (1.0–4.2) 3.2 (1.6–5.0) 4.8 (2.3–7.4) 4.6 (2.6–6.6) 4.2 (3.3–5.0)
 Indonesia 4.9 (1.8–8.2) 6.1 (3.0–9.5) 7.3 (3.3–11.5) 8.8 (4.9–12.8) 8.0 (6.3–9.7)
 Maldives 6.5 (0.7–13.9) 8.0 (1.0–16.1) 10.8 (0.5–21.4) 11.5 (1.0–22.1) 10.4 (2.6–18.5)
 Myanmar 2.1 (0.8–3.5) 2.6 (1.3–4.1) 3.9 (1.9–6.1) 3.8 (2.1–5.4) 3.4 (2.7–4.1)
 Nepal 2.6 (−0.3–6.2) 3.2 (−0.4–7.4) 4.4 (−1.0–10.1) 4.6 (−0.8–10.2) 4.1 (−0.2–8.7)
 Sri Lanka 4.3 (1.6–7.1) 5.3 (2.7–8.3) 8.7 (4.2–13.5) 7.7 (4.2–11.1) 6.9 (5.5–8.3)
 Thailand 3.2 (1.2–5.2) 3.9 (2.0–6.1) 5.6 (2.5–8.7) 5.7 (3.2–8.2) 5.1 (4.1–6.2)
Median for region 3.2 3.9 5.6 5.7 5.1
Western Pacific
 Australia 6.3 (0.8–13.1) 7.8 (1.0–15.4) 10.4 (0.9–20.2) 11.2 (1.4–21.2) 10.1 (2.8–18.0)
 Cambodia 1.9 (0.7–3.1) 2.3 (1.1–3.6) 2.9 (1.3–4.5) 3.3 (1.8–4.8) 3.0 (2.4–3.6)
 China 5.1 (1.9–8.5) 6.4 (3.2–9.8) 8.4 (4.0–13.0) 9.2 (5.2–13.1) 8.3 (6.6–10.0)
 Cook Islands 11.9 (4.4–19.7) 14.8 (7.5–23.4) 19.1 (9.0–29.8) 21.3 (11.8–30.9) 19.2 (15.3–23.1)
 Japan 10.0 (2.4–19.0) 12.3 (3.6–22.5) 16.1 (3.9–29.1) 17.8 (5.0–30.9) 16.1 (7.2–25.4)
 Kiribati 7.7 (2.7–12.8) 9.6 (4.8–15.0) 14.3 (6.9–22.3) 13.8 (7.7–20.0) 12.5 (9.8–15.1)
 Lao People’s Democratic Republic 3.1 (−0.2–7.5) 3.9 (−0.4–8.7) 5.5 (−1.0–12.1) 5.6 (−0.8–12.0) 5.0 (−0.1–10.3)
 Malaysia 10.2 (3.8–16.9) 12.6 (6.3–19.6) 17.1 (8.0–26.6) 18.2 (10.2–26.5) 16.4 (13.0–19.7)
 Marshall Islands 8.2 (3.0–13.7) 10.2 (5.1–15.7) 14.5 (6.9–22.5) 14.7 (8.1–21.2) 13.2 (10.6–16.0)
 Micronesia (Federated States of) 11.0 (4.1–18.3) 13.6 (6.8–21.1) 19.4 (9.1–30.5) 19.6 (11.0–28.6) 17.7 (14.1–21.3)
 Mongolia 1.6 (0.6–2.6) 1.9 (1.0–3.0) 2.5 (1.1–3.9) 2.8 (1.5–4.0) 2.5 (2.0–3.0)
 Nauru 7.7 (2.9–12.9) 9.5 (4.8–14.8) 13.0 (6.2–20.3) 13.8 (7.6–19.8) 12.4 (9.8–14.9)
 New Zealand 7.9 (2.9–13.1) 9.8 (4.9–15.2) 13.1 (6.2–20.3) 14.1 (7.9–20.3) 12.7 (10.2–15.4)
 Papua New Guinea 3.2 (1.2–5.3) 4.0 (1.9–6.2) 5.6 (2.5–8.8) 5.7 (3.1–8.3) 5.2 (4.1–6.3)
 Philippines 3.9 (−0.1–9.0) 4.9 (−0.1–10.7) 6.8 (−0.7–14.7) 7.0 (−0.5–14.4) 6.3 (0.4–12.4)
 Samoa 8.5 (3.1–14.1) 10.5 (5.3–16.4) 17.0 (8.1–26.7) 15.1 (8.5–21.8) 13.6 (10.9–16.4)
 Solomon Islands 7.2 (2.7–11.9) 9.0 (4.5–14.0) 12.9 (6.1–20.2) 12.9 (7.1–18.8) 11.7 (9.2–14.0)
 Tonga 6.9 (2.5–11.5) 8.6 (4.2–13.4) 13.5 (6.4–21.1) 12.4 (6.8–18.0) 11.2 (8.8–13.6)
 Viet Nam 2.5 (−0.2–6.2) 3.1 (−0.4–7.3) 4.1 (−1.1–9.4) 4.5 (−0.8–9.8) 4.1 (−0.2–8.4)
Median for region 7.2 9.0 13.0 12.9 11.7

Overall Median 5.8 7.2 10.1 10.4 9.4
*

PAFs calculated using unadjusted relative risks are provided in webappendix pp 8–11.